Ok everybody, time for my yearly preview of the NBA that will only probably be read by myself, my uncle, and anyone else I force to read it at gunpoint.
I’ve got less thoughts this year, mostly because I don’t think much has changed from last year to this year. I’m going to star with the Eastern Conference playoff teams, and work my way from there:
The Detroit Pistons.
Last year: 64-18, fourth straight appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals.
My prediction: They’re going downhill, maybe 50-55 wins.
Why: The loss of Big Ben is important, mostly because who in the hell are they going to replace him with? Nazr Mohammad (excuse me?). I like the perimeter players here, Chauncy, Rip and Tayshaun are impressive, but Rasheed is steadily declining. Plus, they got smacked around by Miami last year in the conference finals. Hell, they had a really hard time putting away the Cavs.
Miami Heat.
Last year: 52-30, NBA champs
My prediction: 52 wins.
Why: Shaq now freely admits that he takes off half the regular season, so they can’t win more than 52 games. On the other hand, they’ve got Dwayne Wade, who’s good for 50 wins by himself. The only interesting question is whether or not the Heat will ever win a game in which the officials are remotely competent (didn’t happen in the playoffs last year!). I hate this team.
New Jersey:
Last year: 49-33. Lost in 5 to Heat.
My prediction: 45 wins.
Why: Vince is good, RJ is ok, but JKidd is getting really old. Where exactly is the defense coming from on this team? Can anyone other than RJ rebound in traffic? This team was all smoke and mirrors last year, which makes me think they’ve got a fantastic coach, but that only works for so long. They should trade Vince for anyone with size (even Kenyan Martin!). For the record, even if this team won 70 games in the regular season, I wouldn’t believe they could beat the Heat, Detroit, Cavs, Wizards, or Bulls in the playoffs. Seriously, the officials and the NBA have made clear by the officiating in playoffs that they are unwilling to let a team like this win it all.
Cleveland
Last year: 50-32
My prediction: 50 wins.
Why: I’m not convinced LeBron can carry this team any further with this supporting cast. Eric Snow is another year older, Donyell Marshall is another year older, and Z. Illgauskas is a terrible fit for the rest of this team. I like the Brazilean, and I like that they got Drew Gooden for relatively cheap, but seriously, is that Snow, Hughes, LeBron, Gooden, Z lineup going to scare a Finals team? Is it even going to scare the Pistons? I don’t think so. Plus the coach looked shaky in the playoffs last year (but I wouldn’t count him out yet). The x-factor here is LeBron. Maybe he is even better than I think.
Washington.
Last year: 42-40.
My prediction: 42-40.
Why: While Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler are a good foundation, I wouldn’t believe in this team any more than I’d believe in Jersey, and frankly, RJ and Vince are better supports than Caron and Jamison. Speaking of Jamison: Has anyone ever been as productive as he is without becoming a permanent All-Star? I mean, the guy is a 19.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg power forward whose averaged 20 ppg in 6 of his 8 seasons. Last year he averaged 20.5 and 9.3! If I were drafted by Golden State I’d probably just shoot myself.
Indiana.
Last year: 41-41
My prediction: 35 wins
Why: Not even the fantastic coach Rick Carlisle can keep this train from exploding. Jermaine O’Neal may never play a whole season healthy. Stephen Jackson may never get through a season without getting charged with something. This team needs a complete overhaul. And yes, I think it’s hilarious that Ron Artest killed Reggie Miller’s last season and the Pacers kept him long enough to destroy another season. Good bye from the playoffs Indiana!
Chicago.
Last year: 41-41.
My prediction: 45 wins.
Why: I think Ben Gordon is terrible. They should have traded him after his first season. The guy is inconsistent, shoots too much, can’t make a decent pass, and never seems to play man-up D. No wonder Chris Duhon has a career with the Bulls! Anyway, the problem the Bulls had last year was post scoring. That’s IT. What did they do in the off season? They picked up Ben Wallace, possibly the only player in the league who is as bad on offense as Tyson Chandler, and he’s only getting 1-2 more boards a game. There was exactly one player available who could have helped them: Al Harrington. The one guy available who can score in the post. And oh by the way, they allow the best post player they had last year (Darius Songalia) to slip away without compensation.
Milwaukee.
Last year: 40-42
My prediction: 38 wins.
Why: The rest of the league got better. I think the Villenueva-Bogut front court could be really special, especially if Charlie stays angry, but this is a team that will need a few years to get it together. For the record: Michael Redd is not worth max money. Yes he can score. What else can he do? What else can he do? Hmmm. Still waiting on that. Meanwhile the team needs a point guard to complement that Simmons-V-Bogut frontcourt that is young and talented. But that doesn’t mean the Ford-V trade wasn’t totally worth it.
So, for the record, that means I’ve got the Pacers and the Bucks falling out of the playoffs in the east. Who do I think is getting in? You’ll just have to wait till later to find out.