The NBA continues to be the most predictable league in professional
sports, and due to the awful officiating (specifically 'star
treatment') that just continues to get worse. Over the past 25 years
you could have picked 5 teams _before_ the season started and bet
$1000 dollars that one of those 5 teams would win it all and you would
have only lost your money once (Detroit in 2004...and even then I'm
not sure you wouldn't have picked them in the top 5). If you'd just
bet on the team with the most prominent superstar every year (MJ,
Shaq, Duncan and Kobe) then you'd have looked pretty damned good.
If you'd been able to pick at the halfway point, you would have
probably never gotten it wrong.
If you'd picked at the start of the playoffs, you probably could have
narrowed it to three and never have been wrong other than Detroit in
'04.
This is in sharp contrast to other team sports: The past five super
bowl champions were the Steelers, Giants, Colts, Steelers, and
Patriots. When the _playoffs started_ the Giants and 2005-6 Steelers
would not have been considered one of the top 5 teams to win the
Superbowl, let alone at the beginning of the season. In baseball,
there have been 3 recent World Series Winners that were long, long
shots at the beginning of the season: The Phillies, White Sox and
2003 Marlins.
At the beginning of this season, the short list for potential NBA
Champions would have been the Lakers, the Celtics, the Spurs, the
Pistons and the Cavs. At the All-Star Break you would have swapped
out the Magic for the Pistons, but otherwise that list didn't change,
and at the beginning of the playoffs, 95% of the basketball world
would have picked the Lakers, Cavs, or Magic (a few people might have
picked the Celtics despite KG's knee).
This isn't really good for the NBA, because most sports fans identify
with teams, and 25 of 30 teams have fan bases who, at the start of the
season, have no shot at winning a championship. Everything about the
NBA is designed to make the best teams win championships. There is a
grueling 82 game regular season, 7-game playoff series with at least 1
day off between each game (so older players can rest), star treatment
from officials during the game, and inconsistent 'oversight' from the
league office to insure teams aren't hamstrung by suspensions to key
players. There have only ever been 2 wholly unexpected/shocking
playoff series in my entire NBA watching experience: The Warriors
beating the Mavericks three years ago, and the afore-mentioned Pistons
hammering the Lakers in 2004. Every other series was won by the
favorite, or had no clear favorite.
In the context of team sports, that is bizarre. Like, extremely
bizarre. And for me, it sorta calls into question the whole point of
having a sports league. Are we creating entertainment out of a
physical activity, or are we determining the best team that season?
Because one of those options is boring, we all _know_ who the best
teams are, and unless those teams have a ridiculous moment or
amazingly transcendent player, there's not much interesting in
watching the best team win unless that's your team.
Which is a round-about way to talk about how the only thing keeping
the NBA alive is individual storylines. As in, storylines about
individuals. Among other things, this season advanced three star's
storylines to the next stage, and closed the book on two others.
1. Kobe Bryant -- There has never been a more divisive superstar in
the NBA. Forget his off the court stuff, watching this guy play has
always been the most frustrating experience imaginable. He settles
for terrible shots, ignores his teammates, whines constantly to the
officials, throws cheapshots like crazy, and pouts about his poor
teammates. Yet, he sees the court as well as anyone ever has, works
harder in the offseason than any player alive, seeks out flaws in his
game and fixes them, plays defense on a level unmatched by any other
NBA star (at least in terms of intensity), is an effective scorer from
anywhere on the court, and has more raw and refined basketball talent
than anyone not named Jordan has ever had. The story for Kobe has
been about ego. He's an egomaniac. And this chapter in the story is
about how he didn't have to learn that his ego was wrong. He might be
the first player in the history of the NBA to piss on karma and win
anyway. Even MJ had to accept a role. Shaq had to accept a role,
Bird and Magic accepted roles.
Not Kobe. He whined and complained and fought and eventually got a
cast of teammates who were simultaneously extremely talented and
extremely willing to give up any stats of their own so that Kobe could
win his way. Pau Gasol is, right now, the most effective scorer on
the Lakers. There is nobody who can prevent him from getting good
looks on offense. In succession this postseason he made Carlos
Boozer, Yao Ming, Kenyon Martin and Nene, and Dwight Howard look
ridiculous trying to guard him. That's a pretty darned good run.
Kobe, by contrast, looked tired, ineffective, and essentially on the
verge of burning out, for long stretches against Courtney Lee and
Micheal Pietris, JR Smith, and Shane Battier. He got incredibly
lucky that he didn't have to face a guard like Paul Pierce or LeBron
in the Finals.
2. Lebron James -- You gotta go through purgatory before you reach
the stars. Unless your name is Kobe or Dwyane Wade, NBA superstars go
through years of struggling before they achieve team success. We are
now in Act II of the LeBron saga: Wherein Lebron struggles to achieve
success within the framework of ego (even though he isn't
self-centered player like some, he is nevertheless the only
above-average talent on his team, hence, the team success is solely a
product of his own skill). Note: Only Kobe Bryant, in this season,
was able to do this. Act III will probably be LeBron joining with
another superstar.
3. Dwight Howard -- This is a glimpse of the future. NBA
championships, lately, are won in bunches and by big men. Looking
around, there are no other young big men who are championship calibur.
The old guard (Duncan, Shaq, KG) is fading away and the talented bigs
who are out there (Gasol, Nowitzki, Boozer) are already in their
primes and can't handle Dwight. This is the chapter where Dwight
realizes he can win 5 championships over the next ten years if A) he
can get a little better on the offensive end, B) he stays healthy and
C) his teammates are even moderately talented. Of course, he might
also realize that he is already better than almost everyone at his
position even on a bad night, and quits trying to improve. This is a
chapter about choices, and all he has to do is emulate _the_ model
superstar for his generation (MJ) to know what he ought to do next.
4. Duncan -- Yeah, this is the long slow finish. This is Karl
Malone and John Stockton after '98. Too good to be bad, too old to be
great. Unless the Spurs miraculously stumble onto the next Tim Duncan
(nobody out there looks like him right now) this will be the stately
decline into retirement that David Robinson avoided.
5. Jason Kidd -- This is the chapter about hanging on too long. I
have a hard time remember how good Jason Kidd was. But if you can
re-wind your brain a little bit, remember that this guy once had the
greatest court vision of anyone who has ever played the game. Kidd
made Kenyon Martin look like an All-Star power forward on both ends of
the court. He made Richard Jefferson look like a force of nature for
three years. He made Vince Carter look borderline godlike. Kidd took
a Nets team that hadn't been relevant in thirty years and
single-handily willed them to the NBA Finals two years in a row. This
was/is one of the very best point guards ever to play the game, even
though he was almost completely unable to score efficiently. And now
he's really not that good at anything anymore.
Overall, this season sucked. The defending champs fell to injury, the
reigning champs escaped due to opponents injuries in the playoffs, and
the champions were lead by the most selfish, me-first player to ever
win an NBA Finals MVP trophy.
Maybe next year will be better.